Fed: Assessing Recession Risks With State-Level Data
January 08, 2026
January 08, 2026
WASHINGTON, Jan. 8 -- The Federal Reserve issued the following Fed Notes article:
* * *
Assessing Recession Risks with State-Level Data/1
By Hie Joo Ahn/2, Yunjong Eo/3, and Lucas Moyon
This note evaluates recession risks at the national and state levels using a state-of-the-art Bayesian Markov-switching model that distinguishes between full-recovery recessions (U-shaped recessions) and those that generate lasting damage, or hysteresis (L-shape . . .
* * *
Assessing Recession Risks with State-Level Data/1
By Hie Joo Ahn/2, Yunjong Eo/3, and Lucas Moyon
This note evaluates recession risks at the national and state levels using a state-of-the-art Bayesian Markov-switching model that distinguishes between full-recovery recessions (U-shaped recessions) and those that generate lasting damage, or hysteresis (L-shape . . .